If you looked at my original crash portfolio weighting, I had TSCM at 5%. I took the stock off the portfolio this week but I didn’t explain why. After all, why would I buy a tech share when I’m so convinced the market is going down?

I’m a tech guy. I made all the money I ever have in tech. Until the beginning of this year, I was up 150% in 1 and a half years. I’ll eventually put up my returns for all to see. I didn’t give a crap about “subprime” or financial losses. I thought it was well contained, but, boy, was I proven wrong.

I started writing this blog after I noticed trading patterns fundamentally changing in the tech sector. How did I know? Intuition. The price fluctuation I was seeing in tech shares were way too big and counter previous stock market behavior. I’ve become weary of this phenomenon called “cashing out” and it’s effect after January 2nd, the start of the new tax year. Basically, investors wait until Jan 2nd to place trades after siting on them for a month or so to stall tax payments for a whole year. It’s really smart but common sense stuff.

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Posted by rismay, filed under Analysis, Bear Market, Bull Market, Crash Portfolio, Gold, Jim Cramer, Oil, Predictions, Speculation, Video. Date: March 4, 2008, 12:06 am | No Comments »

Yesterday, I pointed out the dwindling power of the Fed to stop recessions and deflation. The day before, I pointed out the financial industries inability to capture the upside of the Fed cuts in the short term since they have a severe funding crises. Today we’ll take a closer look at the unintended consequences of the Fed’s rate cuts for the past decade. Disclaimer: This is more of an opinion based on research, that won’t be discussed here, than a true analysis.

 

Here is the chart of the federal funds rate again:

Federal Funds Target Rate

First, a look at the 1990s. After the S&L Crisis (Savings and Loans Crisis) interest rates went up, but not to previous historical levels. We can thank Greenspan for that. Throughout the 90s we saw sustained low interest rates that failed to curb unproductive economic development. By not doing so he created what is known as an “asset bubble.” This bubble was concentrated around the Technology Industry. Here is what an asset bubble looks like and the subsequent collapse, or “bubble burst:”

Nasdaq

 

I am not claiming that the Dow or S&P 500 will lose that much value. This is just for illustrative purposes.

 

Instead of letting the financial system weed out inefficient firms by lifting interest rates after the dot-com bubble burst, the Fed instead chose more inflation. This time it came in the form of Real Estate. During the period of 1.00% interest rates, the Real Estate industry began to push all forms of exotic mortgages to unknowing borrowers that could not pay back their debt. Add the “Income Effect,” where home owners view their income increasing due to rising home prices, and you get a perfect excuse to spend more money than what you are making. In fact, for the past decade real GDP has grown by 2.9% annualized while consumer spending has grown at 3.6%. The extra spending started around a little before 2001 and has since then added an extra $3 trillion to the economy that was never earned. So every time you hear Wall Street mention this being a “consumer led” recession, don’t believe it. In truth, Wall Street has been prospering on the backs of the American consumer. The collapse of the “income effect” is due to Wall Streets massive speculation on Mortgage Backed Securities. The coming crisis is what happens when years, I repeat: years ,of growth in the financial sector are lost.

 

And now we have the outcome of two massive bubbles, created in part by the Fed, coming down at once with a multitude of other problems. To hear Jim Cramer’s take on this, refer to my previous post and listen to his 45 minute speech, touching partly on the defunct fed, the failures of capitalism, and the two asset bubbles.

 

 

The question shouldn’t be whether or not we are going into a recession, but rather: How much of that 3 trillion are we going to lose? For generations, Americans spent more for a couple of years then paid back their debt. In recent history the cycle has broken. I’m betting on the cycle returning in the recent future.

Posted by cmonterroza, filed under Analysis, Federal Reserve, Jim Cramer. Date: February 6, 2008, 8:06 pm | No Comments »

Jim Cramer visited my school a couple of days ago and delivered this passionate speech (45 Minutes, click on the link to listen to the mp3):

Jim Cramer challenges ‘laissez faire’ government

Although I always had a feeling I’d like the guy in person, I never quite realized how much we had in common.

Here’s the synopsis from Bucknell University:
LEWISBURG,
Pa. — An impassioned and sometimes fiery Jim Cramer, the investing guru and host of CNBC’s “Mad Money,” said Tuesday night that government deregulation was nothing short of a “covert attempt” to eliminate the federal government’s responsibilities to its citizens.

“Do not be fooled by the sirens of laissez faire,” he told a packed audience at Bucknell University’s Weis Center for the Performing Arts in the continuing national speakers series, “The Bucknell Forum: The Citizen & Politics in America.”

“Ever since the (President) Reagan era, our nation has been regressing and repealing years and years worth of safety net and equal economic justice in the name of discrediting and dismantling the federal government’s missions to help solve our nation’s collective domestic woes,” he said. “We call it deregulation … a covert attempt to eliminate the federal government’s domestic responsibilities.”

Before embarking on his talk, titled “The Capitalist Citizen and Democracy,” Cramer warned his audience to not be misled by the persona that hosts his popular CNBC program “Mad Money.”

“This is not a ‘Mad Money’ show, nor is this the man you see at 6 and 11 on TV. This is who I really am. And I’m honored to be given a chance to say who I really am and to give you a talk that is heartfelt and is not about entertainment education or making friends and making money,” said Cramer.

Deregulation
He said that deregulation is the equivalent of saying that “private industry will do it better, that volunteers will do it better, that business if left unfettered will produce so many rich people that they will do it better than the government can.”

Even the best of the nation’s private enterprises, Cramer said, citing companies like Wells Fargo, Pepsi, United Technologies, Google, and Costco, can’t meet those demands.

“You, the next generation of corporate and government leaders, should know and understand the limits of what even the best of capitalism and the marketplace can do to promote the general welfare. As future citizen capitalists you must not embrace the unrequited love of the government of the
United States for private enterprise,” he said. “Be wise enough to see that government regulation is a necessary evil.”

‘Hands-off democracy’
He blamed both Republicans and Democrats for a “hands-off democracy” and “rough-and-tough capitalism,” but was especially critical of government institutions like the Federal Reserve under then-Chairman Alan Greenspan for failing to “curb the Internet boom before it became the dotcom bomb recession of 2001.”

He said Greenspan could have curtailed that boom by using the rules that Congress gave the Fed to curb excessive margin lending that exacerbated the Internet stock boom.

“Then the effects of the dotcom hangover were so severe that he had to lower rates substantially to reflate to get the economy going again. The result? The reckless over-built housing bust that could rival the Great Depression in taking down economies worldwide,” he said, adding that as many as 7 million homebuyers could be left destitute.

‘Nonsensical rebate’
Cramer took issue with the proposed $150 billion economic-stimulus plan, calling it a “nonsensical rebate, the functional equivalent of a fancy iPod and an expensive pair of Nikes, and layer on still more debt that we can’t pay for. … What a waste, what a travesty.”

The bemused best-selling author noted the “utter inconsistency” of laissez faire.

“We want laissez faire when it comes to business — except when it comes to the insistence of a politically popular but economically and environmentally hazardous renewable fuel, ethanol,” he said.

A fuel that doesn’t work
As a result, he said we have unequivocal government support for a fuel that doesn’t work and that raises the price of food for everyone including those who can least afford it, which, in turn, forces the Federal Reserve to keep the money supply tight to rein in resulting inflation.
“So we are laissez faire when it suits us … and we are anti-laissez faire when we can help farm states crucify us on a cross of ethanol,” he said.

He railed against a tax structure that supports “tax rates for billionaires at a lower percentage level than those who make $30,000 a year. This is utterly shameless.”

Enlightened capitalists
In the end, he said, laissez faire policies are but a “fraud meant to get around the true role of a government in promoting the general welfare and enriching a select few” and called on enlightened caring capitalists to reassess the abilities of an unregulated marketplace and for the country to readdress the role of regulators “who would leave us at the hands predator capitalists.”

It is necessary, Cramer said, to get the limitations of capitalism back on the agenda for the next generation in order to fulfill the mission statement made by the Founding Fathers “to promote the general welfare for all.”

Posted by cmonterroza, filed under Jim Cramer, News. Date: February 5, 2008, 8:49 am | 1 Comment »