Subprime Insight

Before all my evidence is laid out here the man that called the collapse as he talks about gold on Thrusday:

I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: I started this blog to, one, inform the public of the terrible economic crisis that is coming and, two, to make money. If anyone has been following my portfolio, they will see that I have changed the positions a substantial amount. This is because as the days pass by, I learn more about the market. I’ll be posting the to-date returns and yearly adjusted rates regularly. The yearly adjusted rates, which will be very high, will be presented just to make fun of the market. The yearly adjusted rates are completely fictional. Disclaimer: I do not work on Wall Street, I am not a CFA and I plan to invest in some of these investments. This is just my subprime insight.

Here is the performance of the portfolio on Friday, February 29th 2008 after two days of entering into the positions:

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If you looked at my original crash portfolio weighting, I had TSCM at 5%. I took the stock off the portfolio this week but I didn’t explain why. After all, why would I buy a tech share when I’m so convinced the market is going down?

I’m a tech guy. I made all the money I ever have in tech. Until the beginning of this year, I was up 150% in 1 and a half years. I’ll eventually put up my returns for all to see. I didn’t give a crap about “subprime” or financial losses. I thought it was well contained, but, boy, was I proven wrong.

I started writing this blog after I noticed trading patterns fundamentally changing in the tech sector. How did I know? Intuition. The price fluctuation I was seeing in tech shares were way too big and counter previous stock market behavior. I’ve become weary of this phenomenon called “cashing out” and it’s effect after January 2nd, the start of the new tax year. Basically, investors wait until Jan 2nd to place trades after siting on them for a month or so to stall tax payments for a whole year. It’s really smart but common sense stuff.

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I proposed a portfolio last week made to profit not necessary from the collapse of the market but the long opportunities that will arise from the rubble of the mayhem. I’ll be tracking the portfolio using www.theupdown.com on the Subprime Insight group. I heard about the site from a friend of mine working for them and currently attending Harvard. The site is an interesting private equity project that gives individual virtual investors real money for out performing the market. I began the portfolio by placing market orders at the start of trading on Thursday. After the massacre on Friday, the portfolio has held its own with a 0.40% gain, or 73% annualized. That was the stress test, next week will be the profit opportunity. Disclaimer: I do not work in the financial services industry, I am not a CFA and I plan to invest in some of these investments. This is just my subprime insight.

 

The weighting last week:

 

Main Plays (75%):

• GLD (20%)
• DBA (20%)
• FXY (15%)
• RJI (10%)
• TLT (10%)

Supporting (25%):

• SLV (10%)
• FXE (5%)
• SHY (5%)
• TSCM (5%)

 

However, since then I have found some interesting new plays. So I’ll be placing new trades come Monday. I’ve also decided to step up the risk. I love risk. Here is the new portfolio:

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