Most people think they are bulls because they believe stocks are going up. However, when stocks dip bulls get hurt bad since prices drop faster than they rise. Really, dividing investment methods by the typical bull or bear is simply a false dichotomy. I do not understand the stigma associated with being either or why people are proud of attaching themselves to either label. Doing so completely misses the fundamental point of investing completely.

Why are you taking risk with your money? Because you hope that the sum of all returns for stocks (1. Capital Gains 2. Dividends 3. Currency Exchange), will outpace inflation. Memorize that. Beat it into your head. Write it on your wall. Tattoo it to the back of your hands. Do something to get that point.

Here are some investment examples:

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Posted by rismay, filed under Analysis, Bull Market. Date: March 21, 2008, 10:06 am | No Comments »

If you looked at my original crash portfolio weighting, I had TSCM at 5%. I took the stock off the portfolio this week but I didn’t explain why. After all, why would I buy a tech share when I’m so convinced the market is going down?

I’m a tech guy. I made all the money I ever have in tech. Until the beginning of this year, I was up 150% in 1 and a half years. I’ll eventually put up my returns for all to see. I didn’t give a crap about “subprime” or financial losses. I thought it was well contained, but, boy, was I proven wrong.

I started writing this blog after I noticed trading patterns fundamentally changing in the tech sector. How did I know? Intuition. The price fluctuation I was seeing in tech shares were way too big and counter previous stock market behavior. I’ve become weary of this phenomenon called “cashing out” and it’s effect after January 2nd, the start of the new tax year. Basically, investors wait until Jan 2nd to place trades after siting on them for a month or so to stall tax payments for a whole year. It’s really smart but common sense stuff.

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Posted by rismay, filed under Analysis, Bear Market, Bull Market, Crash Portfolio, Gold, Jim Cramer, Oil, Predictions, Speculation, Video. Date: March 4, 2008, 12:06 am | No Comments »

There are many different strategies to investing. Some follow the stars, other follow silly charts and some follow common sense. I’m with the latter. I follow a “bottom-down” approach. I look for companies or sectors of interest and try to bet on their success. After careful analysis, I place bets on companies undergoing massive change and positive cash inflows. With that in mind, the financial and residential industry became on obvious shorting opportunity. However, shorting is a risky strategy since the market can honestly be retarded at times and bid up useless companies. Thus, my main strategy is finding long opportunities as a result of short opportunities that the market has not yet quite grasped.

 

I usually like betting on specific companies to maximize returns. However, this financial crisis has made industry wide betting opportunities quite appealing. With volatility at historical highs since it has began being measured the best way to take advantage of this is not necessarily market timing. Just in the past few weeks, there have been many examples of market manipulation. This is where ETFs come into play.

 

ETFs allow investors to use complex strategies to take advantage of industry wide trends. I’d love to invest directly in gold, but that would require futures trading with significant downside risk exposure. I’d love to invest directly in credit default swaps, but that opportunity is really only available to institutional investors.

 

With ETFs now moving from the simple “specialized index” strategies the opportunities for profit potential are significantly increasing. The ProShares series of ETFs are the future of strategic investing. I was hoping to get to Wall Street and invent this very type of investing instrument, but I’m a little young. For example, what I’d call the “Tiger” series of ETFs would be a leveraged strategy that would long the best in an industry and short the worst. Why the hell in the world would you buy the worst in class long as has been done with traditional ETFs and index funds? These new instruments would be hedge funds for the masses: Not the crap mutual fund structure where 80% under perform the market.

 

To those that say it’s impossible to outperform the market: that is a pure lie. I’ll admit that it gets much harder when lots of money is involved but for the prudent individual investor the sky is the limit.

Posted by rismay, filed under Analysis, Bear Market, Bull Market, Economy, Speculation. Date: March 1, 2008, 9:06 pm | No Comments »

Shares of YHOO rose past the $30 mark shortly in late afternoon trading. Bloomberg broke an article at 2:26pm that Microsoft was either considering a revised big for Yahoo! or a hostile takeover. Unreliable sources and volume indicate that speculation of a new bid could have been leaked. The new bidders? Apple, AAPL, who has $18 billion in cash, and News Corp, NWS. It is still unconfirmed if either will really bid for Yahoo! Apple Insider is also suggesting the same. They broke the news around 12:00.

UPDATE: It looks like Microsoft will continue its pursuit of YHOO. Bloomberg is reporting it could extend the buyout offer directly to shareholders.

Yahoo Speculation

Posted by cmonterroza, filed under Bull Market, News, Speculation, Video. Date: February 11, 2008, 2:00 pm | No Comments »

February 6 (Bloomberg) — Jeffrey Kleintop, who helps manage $237 billion as chief market strategist at LPL Financial Group, talks with Bloomberg’s Brian Sullivan from Boston about the outlook for the U.S. stock market, comparisons between the current environment and the market situation in 1998, and some of Kleintop’s industry picks. (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch the Video.

Summary:

Kleintop sees a turnaround in the market in as soon as 6 weeks. He compares today’s problems to 1998 when we had LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) blow up and the Asian currency crisis.  He says this is a “mid-cycle” slow down. Any thoughts?

Posted by cmonterroza, filed under Bull Market, News, Video. Date: February 7, 2008, 12:09 am | No Comments »